|
by Richard Beeston,
Diplomatic Editor and Zahid Hussain in Islamabad
The Times of London, December 31,
2001
INDIA boasted yesterday that it
would survive a first strike by a Pakistani atomic weapon, but that its
neighbor would be wiped out in a swift nuclear counter-attack.
As troop reinforcements continued
to pour into the frontier zone, and tens of thousands of people fled
border villages, the specter of all-out war between two nuclear powers
prompted America and Britain to intervene directly.
President Bush spoke by telephone
to India’s Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, and to President
Musharraf of Pakistan, urging them to show restraint. He also discussed
the crisis with Tony Blair. The Prime Minister, who issued his own appeal
yesterday for both countries to back down, has agreed to launch a
diplomatic peace mission when he visits the region early in the new year.
A serious intervention from the
outside world could not come too soon. India is determined to avenge the
attack by Islamic militants on the Delhi parliament that killed 14 people,
including five assailants, on December 13. Unless Pakistan arrests and
hands over those responsible, India seems determined to act unilaterally.
Pakistan says that it has held at
least 50 militants and frozen assets and last night Hafiz Mohammed Saeed,
the head of the group blamed for the attack was arrested for “making
inflammatory speeches to incite people to violate law and order”. But
India says that is not enough and wants the suspects handed over.
Both countries insisted that they
wanted to avoid war. But on the ground they both ordered the biggest
military build-up for 15 years in what looked like a prelude to the fourth
Indo-Pakistani war since independence in 1947.
Mr. Vajpayee won the backing of
opposition parties yesterday to take whatever action was needed. On the
other side of the border Adbul Sattar, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, said
that his anxieties were “mounting, not only by the day but by the hour”.
Part of Pakistan’s concern is the
increasingly bellicose message from Delhi, whose conventional and nuclear
forces are roughly double those of Pakistan. In an interview published
yesterday George Fernandes, the Indian Defense Minister, said that his
military, from the top down, was eager to fight and that thousands of
Indian reinforcements would be in place by the middle of this week.
Speaking after a visit to frontline
positions in Kashmir, he told the Hindustan Times: “Everyone is raring to
go. In fact, something that actually bothers them is that things might now
reach a point where one says there is no war.”
Of greater concern were his remarks
about the possible use of nuclear weapons. He warned Pakistan not to
consider the use of a first strike, which he said would be tantamount to
national suicide. “We could take a strike, survive and then hit back,” he
said. “Pakistan would be finished. I do not really fear that the nuclear
issue would figure in a conflict.”
However, military experts point out
that in the event of a conventional war, Indian forces would heavily
outnumber the Pakistanis and could score swift victories. In that case
Pakistan’s weapon of last resort would be its atomic bomb.
Certainly General Musharraf
suggested yesterday, after meeting most of the country’s political
leaders, that he would not walk away from a fight with his bigger neighbor
“I stand here addressing the people of India . . . that Pakistan stands
for peace. Pakistan wants to reduce tensions . . . Pakistan wants to
de-escalate,” he said. “However, Pakistan has taken all counter-measures.
If any war is thrust on Pakistan, Pakistan’s Armed Forces and the 140
million people of Pakistan are fully prepared to face all consequences
with all their might.”
The West is caught in the middle.
It needs Islamabad’s help to hunt down Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda
leadership, many of whom may already be hiding in Pakistan. Pulling
Pakistani troops away from the Afghan border to fight India could
seriously hamper that effort.
At the same time, the West
sympathizes with India’s battle against terrorism and militant Islamic
groups in Kashmir which have in the past kidnapped and killed Western
hostages.
But above all Washington and London
want the stand-off resolved peacefully.
Return to Table of Contents |